C
ClassCastException
[copyright] is required or it would be almost impossible to make money
writing books or programs. Custom programs would survive, but no one-
size-fits-all.
That is the popular misconception, yes, but there's mounting evidence
that it simply isn't true.
For one thing, authors made money long before there was copyright.
There's only been copyright for about 300 years, but people have been
writing (and being paid to write) for thousands.
Back when copying meant writing the same by hand, then the cost of
copying created a natural barrier.
Irrelevant. There've been somewhat-mechanized means of duplicating
written documents for 400+ years.
But a lot of the people working on these projects are working for
companies that makes a huge part and in some cases the majority of their
money on software licenses.
90% or more of programmers are paid to develop in-house code, not
software that will be sold to the general public. *None* get copyright
royalties. And the companies can find other business models, the
existence of which has certainly been proved.
It is not particular clear.
Sure it is. Commercially sold works make the bulk of their revenues in
the first year or two. The hardcover book. The blockbuster movie. Suppose
one of each is released today. Six months from now, the movie appears on
PPV and DVD; you can watch it for a fraction the theater ticket price via
PPV or rental. Six months after that, the movie appears on non-PPV pay TV
ad-free movie superchannels and the paperback book comes out. The
hardcover finds its way to the bargain bin with the price lowered to
compete with the paperback. The DVDs are already also appearing in
bargain bins. A year after that, the hardcovers are selling for two or
three bucks in the bargain bins that still have copies and the movie
shows up on free broadcast TV (albeit now interspersed with ads).
Revenue curves likewise show this. Avatar made its first billion within a
few *weeks*.
Really, the only argument you can make is that with a two-year copyright
term people would wait for it to become free rather than pay, but people
pay to see movies in the theater and buy hardback books all the time,
rather than wait for the paperback or for the movie to be on cheap DVD
rental or free over-the-air TV, so apparently that argument would be
wrong.
Furthermore, cinema tickets are actually scarce. Get rid of copyright and
their price would remain well above zero, and put in place revenue-
sharing arrangements (theater will help fund filmmaking in exchange for
being the first on their block to screen it, or whatever) the movie
industry could conceivably make rather a large fraction of its current
box-office revenues in a no-copyright world (and meanwhile its expenses
go through the floor -- no need to license music, etc.; the original Star
Wars proved you could make a blockbuster with at-the-time inexpensive no-
name talent, so the expenditures on million-dollar names and faces can
also go; and end-to-end digital production is another massive cost-
cutting option). Printed books are attractive even given e-readers; zero
out copyright and people will still buy books for the foreseeable future.
As the "pirating" of Dickens in America a century or more ago
demonstrated, an author *can* make a profit selling printed books without
a distribution monopoly. The works that would be harmed the most are
*bad* works, as in any situation where it's easy to "try before you buy".
The inability to sucker an opening weekend audience of millions into
paying to see a bad film does not strike me as a tragedy, though, were it
to become the case. It should in fact serve as an impetus to improve
quality, if it ceases to be possible to actually turn a profit on some
percentage of badly-made films.