While I cannot find fault with your second point, your first
contradicts quite a bit of what I've read in the past year or so. Is
there new information you could point me at?
I don't have anything new Bob, but as more and more investment gets put
into .NET, it is going to be harder to make a case for sticking with
classic ASP and classic VB, so attrition will eventually kill it even if
Microsoft does not.
The forums will likely exist for quite some time, as people will not
give up the older style for years if not a decade or more. But
supporting through NNTP and giving support through updates are two
different things.
We are now two + generations (depending on whether you consider a
genration the base or the version number) of .NET away from active
development on ASP, with another generation coming later on this year or
early next year (.NET 4.0). We have seen the birth of Silverlight, as
well, which allows fairly complex interactive, and visually pleasing,
bits without a lot of work (even less with VS 2010).
Taking all the change in, what company is going to start new development
in a technology that has had no active development in 9 years?
Eventually, the old apps will be redeveloped or come to end of
lifecycle. At that point, ASP will effectively, if not officially, be a
dead "language", just like Latin. It will not stop people from learning
or even developing in it, but it will not be the chosen one for most
people.
That is all I meant when I stated "ASP is eventually going to go away".