Computer Language Popularity Trend

M

mark.hoemmen

Xah said:
Computer Language Popularity Trend

This page gives a visual report of computer languages's popularity, as
indicated by their traffic level in newsgroups. This is not a
comprehensive or fair survey, but does give some indications of
popularity trends.

http://xahlee.org/lang_traf/index.html

Careful there with the sweeping generalizations and quick judgments
about languages :)

Furthermore, it's nice to conclude that Lisp is getting more popular,
but we also have to take into account global trends (maybe more people
are using usenet in general? maybe the total number of programmers in
the world is increasing?).

Still, it's nice to see trends plotted out like that, thanks for the
work :)

mfh
 
J

James Stroud

Careful there with the sweeping generalizations and quick judgments
about languages :)

Furthermore, it's nice to conclude that Lisp is getting more popular,
but we also have to take into account global trends (maybe more people
are using usenet in general? maybe the total number of programmers in
the world is increasing?).

Still, it's nice to see trends plotted out like that, thanks for the
work :)

mfh

Finally, a contribution of substance from lambda. Who woulda thunk it?
 
C

cartercc

I, too, attempt to track the popularity of computer languages, but I
like to look at the job boards. My theory is that the number of
employers looking for particular skills indicates the relative
popularity of the language. This is a somewhat crude measure,
particularly with Microsoft technologies (VB, VB6, VB.NET, VS, etc). I
think it's much more reliable with open source languages, such as Java,
Perl, PHP, and so on.

'Popularity' is a slippery concept as well. C isn't real popular in
terms of jobs, but it is in terms of compensation. In system
administration (which I also follow), Windows has large numbers of
jobs, but a low level of compensation. OSes like AIX on the other hand
have lower numbers of available jobs, but those tend to be more highly
compensated. One could argue that compensation is a function of
popularity, with the more unpoular technologies having carrying a
bigger price to attract more people -- an example of supply and demand
-- but then one would have to argue that garbade collectors should be
more highly compensated that physicians.

You can also get a rough measure ot the popularity of web scripting
languages from an analysis of the URLs. The last time I did this was in
2003, and as I recall, these were the results:
PHP 30% and increasing
Perl 28% and falling
ASP 25% and falling fast
ColdFusion 6% and steady
Java and JSP 5% and increasing
others, Python, Ruby, ...

Again, this is a very rough measure. Java, for instance, is used by big
companies (like auto manufacturers, aerospace industries, defense
contractors, big retailers, etc.) One site/one vote isn't
representative necessarily, plus the bigger companies employ more
people than the smaller companies that tend to use FOSS.

Finally, in my area, we have a lot of banking and insurance jobs. These
companies internally are exclusively Microsoft shops. It's virtually
impossible to work there unless you know Visual Studio and SQL Server.
Misrosoft people tend not to prowl the newsgroups, and I would suspect
that any measurement based on numbers of newsgroup postings would be
skewed for this reason.

CC
 
S

Sherm Pendley

Careful there with the sweeping generalizations and quick judgments

Such things are all Xah does. Look at the distribution list for this
message - of what possible use is cross-posting something like this to
five different language groups, unless you're trying to start a cross-
group argument?

In short - Please don't feed the trolls.

sherm--
 
J

Joe Marshall

Xah said:
Computer Language Popularity Trend

This page gives a visual report of computer languages's popularity, as
indicated by their traffic level in newsgroups. This is not a
comprehensive or fair survey, but does give some indications of
popularity trends.

Suggestions:
Provide a log-scale plot. You can clearly see that there are
exponential trends in the data, these will turn into lines in
log-scale. You can also see that the plots get more widely distributed
as the number of posts increase. This too will be minimized in
log-scale.

Make the horizontal scale for the `scripting' languages the same as
the others. I know there isn't data out on the left of the graph, but
it surprised me to see points out there until I noticed the scale
change.

For the Google trends, try looking for `java programming' or `written
in python' to avoid picking up the island and the popular comedy troupe.
 
S

sjdevnull

You can also get a rough measure ot the popularity of web scripting
languages from an analysis of the URLs. The last time I did this was in
2003, and as I recall, these were the results:
PHP 30% and increasing
Perl 28% and falling
ASP 25% and falling fast
ColdFusion 6% and steady
Java and JSP 5% and increasing
others, Python, Ruby, ...

At the site I'm working on, you'd see a URL like
http://www.whatever.com/login or http://www.whatever.com/boards?id=131
-- how would you count them? Such (extensionless) URLs are far more
common in the Python, Ruby, and Java world in my experience than the
PHP, Perl, and ASP world, so my first instinct looking at your numbers
is to believe they're just biased toward languages that more often put
the extension in the URL.
 
S

Stefan Scholl

In comp.lang.lisp Jon Ribbens said:
I just read "PHP as a language is rather dry and business-like",
and fell off my chair.

Well, business really is that crazy! :)
 
J

John Bailo

Xah said:
Computer Language Popularity Trend

This page gives a visual report of computer languages's popularity, as
indicated by their traffic level in newsgroups.

The only problem being that in the last five years, there are now a
multiplicity of options for discussing any of these languages, in places
that are not Usenet.

For example, Sun hosts a variety of bulletin boards on its java.net
site. Likewise Microsoft has it's "communities".

My guess is that if you included all the new avenues the other languages
would have growth curves about the same shape as for LISP.
 
M

Mladen Adamovic

There is one index at : http://www.tiobe.com/tpci.htm

It isn't much reliable, put still I think it is a bit reliable.

Also, you might use number of open source projects at Sourceforge for
the given language for giving assumptions, or number of job openings at
Monster, i.e.
 
C

cartercc

At the site I'm working on, you'd see a URL like
http://www.whatever.com/login or http://www.whatever.com/boards?id=131
-- how would you count them? Such (extensionless) URLs are far more
common in the Python, Ruby, and Java world in my experience than the
PHP, Perl, and ASP world, so my first instinct looking at your numbers
is to believe they're just biased toward languages that more often put
the extension in the URL.

Yeah. CGI is more than Perl, CGI also includes TCL and Python, and
perhaps some others. In my limited JSP developments, we didn't use file
extensions.

I don't think you can use any measure as an accurate yardstick, but
rather as an impressionistic canvas. Just because there are five times
as many .cgi extensions as .jsp extensions doesn't mean that Perl is
five times more popular that Java. Also, web apps tend to stick around,
and we don't have a sure way to gauge the age of these pages, so it
could be that, in the last year, the ration of JSP to CGI pages is five
to one in favor of JSP.

To some extent, the popularity of technologies is driven by the
available resources. If there are many more Java programmers than Perl
programmers, then Java wil appear to be more popular, and vice versa. I
know that colleges and universities teach Java in their CS and IS
courses, and they don't teach Perl.

CC
 
A

Ari Johnson

I don't think you can use any measure as an accurate yardstick, but
rather as an impressionistic canvas.

Exactly. You can't measure "popularity" without defining the term.
Xah Lee appears to define popularity based on the number of posts made
in a given language's Usenet group (for his choice of which group
belongs to a given language). Given that a substantial portion of the
recent posts in each group is likely an off-topic Xah Lee crosspost,
this metric is probably unreliable even for measuring his own intended
metric: the amount of discussion taking place about each language on
Usenet.

How do you define popularity? Do you define it by how much people
talk about a language on the internet? How many programs are written
in it? How many lines of code are written in it? How many CPU cycles
are used to run code written in it?

None of these is fair, as it is. More people use Ada than talk about
it online, because it is a common language in classified government
work. More people talk about Lisp online than use it, because their
jobs or other circumstances limit their choice to other languages.
Moreover, most people use more than one language, and after a long day
at the office of pumping out Java or Perl, they go home and talk about
Lisp or C#. Online discussion isn't a measure of actual use, even if
you can actually measure the total amount of discussion.

The number of programs written is likely to be grossly inaccurate.
People write millions of small C or Perl utilities all the time, to a
combined effect of less problem-solving than one big Java application.

The number of lines of code written in a language is also unfair,
because it takes more lines of C than of almost any other language to
solve most problems.

The number of CPU cycles spent running code that was written in a
given language is also unfair, because, for instance, Ruby code burns
more CPU cycles to do something than C code does, in the average case.

So, how do you define popularity?
 
J

James Stroud

Sherm said:
Such things are all Xah does. Look at the distribution list for this
message - of what possible use is cross-posting something like this to
five different language groups, unless you're trying to start a cross-
group argument?

In short - Please don't feed the trolls.

sherm--

While Xah does have a reputation for trolling, and the crossposting
borders on pathological, you must admit that he presents here a bit of
nice and illuminating research. We probably should encourage him when he
does worthwhile things, and perhaps, in the future, he will put more
time towards them and less time towards the trolling for which he is famous.

James

--
James Stroud
UCLA-DOE Institute for Genomics and Proteomics
Box 951570
Los Angeles, CA 90095

http://www.jamesstroud.com/
 
S

semiopen

John said:
The only problem being that in the last five years, there are now a
multiplicity of options for discussing any of these languages, in places
that are not Usenet.

For example, Sun hosts a variety of bulletin boards on its java.net
site. Likewise Microsoft has it's "communities".

My guess is that if you included all the new avenues the other languages
would have growth curves about the same shape as for LISP.
Good point - especially given the sheer volume of the microsoft groups.
For example, I follow microsoft.public.excel.programming (and thus have
been quite interested in the discussion in fa.haskell recently about
finding a way for VBA to call Haskell functions) regularly and it
almost always has hundreds of posts a day - most of them business-like
discussions of code. Few of the traditional comp groups can boast of
such volume - so any attempt to measure an ill-defined popularity by
focusing on them will be skewed.

-semiopen
 
T

Tagore Smith

Stefan said:
Well, business really is that crazy! :)

Of the three people with whom I've worked who have sat on boards in the
Fortune 100, at least two of them have screwy reference semantics ;).
 

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