how to predict elections from rough polling data

Discussion in 'Java' started by Roedy Green, Oct 8, 2008.

  1. Roedy Green

    Roedy Green Guest

    Election prediction.

    To predict an election you really need riding by riding polls.
    However, these are expensive, so the best you get is region by region
    polls.

    I wondered if it might be possible to take those polls, combine them
    with historical polling data, historical voting data, and combine that
    with a few selected riding by riding polls to more accurately predict
    an election.

    I was thinking of writing this up as a student project. I wonder what
    sort of hints I could give the student on how to proceed. It may
    require some sort of random simulations, fuzzy logic, or neural nets.
    --
    Roedy Green Canadian Mind Products
    http://mindprod.com/politics/harper.html
    Anyone but Harper for Prime Minister of Canada
     
    Roedy Green, Oct 8, 2008
    #1
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  2. Roedy Green

    Arne Vajhøj Guest

    Roedy Green wrote:
    > Election prediction.
    >
    > To predict an election you really need riding by riding polls.
    > However, these are expensive, so the best you get is region by region
    > polls.
    >
    > I wondered if it might be possible to take those polls, combine them
    > with historical polling data, historical voting data, and combine that
    > with a few selected riding by riding polls to more accurately predict
    > an election.
    >
    > I was thinking of writing this up as a student project. I wonder what
    > sort of hints I could give the student on how to proceed. It may
    > require some sort of random simulations, fuzzy logic, or neural nets.


    Wrong group again ?

    Or is it intended to be coded in Java ?

    Arne
     
    Arne Vajhøj, Oct 8, 2008
    #2
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  3. Roedy Green

    JK Guest

    [OT] Re: how to predict elections from rough polling data

    Roedy Green wrote:

    > I wondered if it might be possible to take those polls, combine them
    > with historical polling data, historical voting data, and combine that
    > with a few selected riding by riding polls to more accurately predict
    > an election.



    Nate Silver is already doing essentially the same thing, if I
    understand you correctly : http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

    (Yeah, I hate when that happens, too.)

    -- JK

    --
    (declare (antichrist i) (anarchist i)) ; -- the sexp-pistols
     
    JK, Oct 9, 2008
    #3
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