Re: How Robots Will Steal Your Job

E

Eric Sosman

Roedy said:
[...] Human-level AI is unlikely to exist before single computer
performance will have been raised to at least human levels,
at least not long before.

It is very sneaky how AI sneaks up on you. Back in the 70s I wrote a
program called Optow that designed high voltage transmission lines.
The engineers used to come back each day to laugh at its designs it
plotted I had posted on the wall. Each day I polished its algorithms.
It got better and better. One day it was as smart as a human. A week
later it was 10% better (designed lines that met all safety criteria
and were 10% cheaper to build). ALL OF A SUDDEN ( as least from the
engineers' point of view) this thing suddenly flipped from being a
joke to a terrible threat that cost the jobs of 50 Phds and Masters
degree engineers.

Just how much of the now-infamous "Erie Loop" was
designed by Roedy's program?

(Sorry; couldn't resist ;-)
 
A

Alan Balmer

It used somewhat more sophisticated math than the engineers used to
check, simply because it was too much effort for the engineers to do
detailed checks by hand. They mostly eyeballed and checked only iffy
sections.

A key point. Cooperation between the engineers and the computer can be
even more productive. Years ago, when I worked at Bausch & Lomb (in
electronics, not optical engineering) I was told that many of their
breakthrough products (Cinemascope, stay-in-focus zoom lenses, etc)
were the result of engineers being able to use the computer to develop
designs which would otherwise have taken inordinate amounts of time.
Engineers were suddenly free to explore ideas which would previously
not have been feasible to research.
 
I

Ian Woods

A key point. Cooperation between the engineers and the computer can be
even more productive. Years ago, when I worked at Bausch & Lomb (in
electronics, not optical engineering) I was told that many of their
breakthrough products (Cinemascope, stay-in-focus zoom lenses, etc)
were the result of engineers being able to use the computer to develop
designs which would otherwise have taken inordinate amounts of time.
Engineers were suddenly free to explore ideas which would previously
not have been feasible to research.

This is why I'm interested in more and more powerful computing platforms.
It's all very well being able to watch Lara's almost inhumanly larges
breasts rendered in realtime, but it's not exactly useful.

It's often trivial to describe the model for a problem such that it's
something along the lines of:

make something which meets these criteria, as well as is possible.

For most applications this is producing a function which tests how
'good' a given guess is with some optional contraints. The obvious
progression is to shove it into a computer which selects guesses which
'optimise' this function. There are of course piles of other
'optimisation' problems, and algorithms which attempt to solve them,
about selecting good or near optimal solutions for different kinds of
problems.

Such a function is often trivial to produce compared to solving the
problem containing it. The algorithms which solve these problems are
often expensive to compute without a large amount of mathematical
analysis to make it more computable.

One thing that is clear: the faster computers get and the faster the
algorithms, the number of problems which can be explored increases. The
faster, the more variables can be handle, better solutions found or even
(*gasp*) whole new problems which could never be solved well suddenly
become solvable.

It's a shame that most of the computing power in the world is actually
spent on almost useless triviality. We're not short of processing power,
but we're definately short on co-ordinating it effectively!

Ian Woods
 
R

Roedy Green

Just how much of the now-infamous "Erie Loop" was
designed by Roedy's program?

My job was to make sure the lines did not fall down, or droop too low,
from ice loading or high winds. After I left the company I heard that
the program continued to be used to design most of the lines in
British Columbia and then the went on to use it to design lines in
Brazil as well. McDonnell Douglas bought a copy of the program for
$30,000, so it may have been used in the USA as well.

There was a Hungarian refugee Arpad Molnar who did the programs to
deal with protection faults -- a bit of a black art, figuring out how
to recover instantly from various failures.

I find it highly peculiar there has been so much finger pointing as to
who screwed up over the huge East Coast blackout. Even the technology
of the 70s should have made it clear what happened.

The basic problem is having a huge peak load from the heat wave and
not enough reserve to cover it. In that sense, the entire grid is
culpable.

Nobody seems willing to invest in the logical technology: devices the
electric utilities can automatically cut back in times of peak load.
Customers willing to spread their load or forgo peak load times,
should be rewarded.
 
R

Roedy Green

Engineers were suddenly free to explore ideas which would previously
not have been feasible to research.

The computer tools of the early 70 revolved around the punch card and
very specific applications. The word processor on the Apple ][ was
one of the first tools I saw that was designed to be a generic
open-ended tool. There was ICES (wire frame structural analysis) but
nothing like the delightful graphical tools of today that invite
exploration.

Python adds to java a way of rapidly pulling together canned bits for
experimentation. We may also need a more visual way, perhaps using a
plumbing metaphor where you plug outputs into inputs, and the "pipes"
are colour coded for compatibility, and automatically try to connect
themselves when there is no ambiguity.
 
S

Sudsy

Roedy Green wrote:
Nobody seems willing to invest in the logical technology: devices the
electric utilities can automatically cut back in times of peak load.
Customers willing to spread their load or forgo peak load times,
should be rewarded.

And they are! Companies able and willing to accept interruptions at
times of peak load pay less for their energy. These programs have
been around for years; they're even available in Ontario.
 
R

Roedy Green

And they are! Companies able and willing to accept interruptions at
times of peak load pay less for their energy. These programs have
been around for years; they're even available in Ontario.

Quite right. Pulp mills, aluminum smelters and other big power users
have such agreements. However, I figure it should not be rocket
science to build that into all kinds of home appliances, particularly
hot water heaters, freezers and air conditioners,
 
D

David Zimmerman

Roedy said:
Quite right. Pulp mills, aluminum smelters and other big power users
have such agreements. However, I figure it should not be rocket
science to build that into all kinds of home appliances, particularly
hot water heaters, freezers and air conditioners,

Years ago I had an hot water heater that only heated at night when power
was cheaper. It was a big tank so it would last all day (most days)
 
R

Roedy Green

Years ago I had an hot water heater that only heated at night when power
was cheaper. It was a big tank so it would last all day (most days)

you need something to monitor your usage to reward you for doing that.

You should be rewarded for any cutting back you do in peak loads.

You need some way for the electric company to broadcast a message over
the AC lines just how tight the situation is, and to have smart
billing that tracks your usage in different periods. People then will
WANT smart appliances that cut back all by themselves at peak times
that also listen to those ac broadcasts.
 
T

Tim Tyler

:> We may also need a more visual way, perhaps using a
:> plumbing metaphor where you plug outputs into inputs, and the "pipes"
:> are colour coded for compatibility, and automatically try to connect
:> themselves when there is no ambiguity.

: Visual programming and visual programming tools have/had been around
: for some time for Java and other languages. E.g. Sun had a "no
: programming required" Java development environment (no, not the Beanbox
: demo) where you plumbed Java Beans together.

BEA got into the news recently with a tool along these lines:

``BEA says developers can now pick up existing J2EE-based business
programs and drop them as a "control" into their new IDE. This allows
Visual Basic-style programming of "composite applications", taking bits
of functionality out of systems such as SAP and PeopleSoft and mixing
them together using the one toolset. In doing so, the company claims it
has moved Java up to the next level, and within easy reach of Lotus
Notes developers.''

- http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/18/1061059764265.html
 
E

Eray Ozkural exa

Visual programming and visual programming tools have/had been around
for some time for Java and other languages. E.g. Sun had a "no
programming required" Java development environment (no, not the Beanbox
demo) where you plumbed Java Beans together. AFAIK they canceled the
product for the same reason many of these products got canceled: They
don't sell. And IMHO they don't sell because

There are two reasons why such a thing wouldn't sell

1. Java sucks

2. It's not a visual programming language. Such a language would have
to be designed from ground up for visual syntax and semantics. I've
heard of a graphical LISP variant, but except a few academic project I
suspect there is no such thing.
 
H

Hans-Georg Michna

Roedy Green said:
It is very sneaky how AI sneaks up on you. Back in the 70s I wrote a
program called Optow that designed high voltage transmission lines. ...

Roedy,

interesting, thanks!

Hans-Georg
 
J

Joona I Palaste

Eray Ozkural exa <[email protected]> scribbled the following
There are two reasons why such a thing wouldn't sell
1. Java sucks

Nice to hear such a well-presented argument with lots of insight.
Far be it from you to tell us WHY Java sucks?

--
/-- Joona Palaste ([email protected]) ---------------------------\
| Kingpriest of "The Flying Lemon Tree" G++ FR FW+ M- #108 D+ ADA N+++|
| http://www.helsinki.fi/~palaste W++ B OP+ |
\----------------------------------------- Finland rules! ------------/
"When a man talks dirty to a woman, that's sexual harassment. When a woman talks
dirty to a man, that's 14.99 per minute + local telephone charges!"
- Ruben Stiller
 
T

Tom McGlynn

Roedy Green wrote:

....
you need something to monitor your usage to reward you for doing that.

You should be rewarded for any cutting back you do in peak loads.

You need some way for the electric company to broadcast a message over
the AC lines just how tight the situation is, and to have smart
billing that tracks your usage in different periods. People then will
WANT smart appliances that cut back all by themselves at peak times
that also listen to those ac broadcasts.

When we installed central air conditioning in our home about 8 years ago the
electric company put in a little box that allows them to limit
usage a bit when they are running at peak load. I think the
agreement is something like they'll not cut off more than 20 minutes
each hour.

We get a discount on our electric bill in exchange regardless of
whether they exercise the option.

No one is required to install these boxes but it seem pretty widespread around here.
(Baltimore MD area). We've never noticed if or when the company
has switched off the AC.

Regards,
Tom McGlynn

P.S., Presumably to keep this on topic we need to think about
a Java protocol for such devices... How about

JEEP... The Jave Electicity Extending Protocol
 
E

Evgenij Barsukov

Thomas said:
Visual programming and visual programming tools have/had been around
for some time for Java and other languages. E.g. Sun had a "no
programming required" Java development environment (no, not the Beanbox
demo) where you plumbed Java Beans together. AFAIK they canceled the
product for the same reason many of these products got canceled: They
don't sell. And IMHO they don't sell because

- "Real programmers" don't like them, because they are not "macho"
enough and smell like child's play

- Non-programmers still have to learn basic things like what is a
loop, a condition, branching, structuring your data, geting the
program's logic right. So the prommis of "no programming required"
does not hold. If you are lucky you get some "no typing required"
environment.

There is very succsesful visual language based on dragging, dropping and pluging together graphical
elements representing different functions - it is LabView made by National Instruments.

It is widely used in research labs to set-up computer controlled experiments - very
comfortable to debug as the program flow is also visualized. Many companies creating
computer controlled instruments first use LabView to perfect the algorithm, and
only then move program to other language for efficiency.

Regards,
Evgenij


--

__________________________________________________
*science&fiction*free programs*fine art*phylosophy:
http://sudy_zhenja.tripod.com
----------remove hate_spam to answer--------------
 
A

Alan Balmer

Eray Ozkural exa <[email protected]> scribbled the following




Nice to hear such a well-presented argument with lots of insight.
Far be it from you to tell us WHY Java sucks?

It's not good for Microsoft. What's good for Microsoft is good for the
world. Just ask them.
 
P

Programmer Dude

Thomas said:
Visual programming and visual programming tools have/had been around
for some time for Java and other languages.
[...]
And IMHO they don't sell because

- "Real programmers" don't like them, because they are not "macho"
enough and smell like child's play

I wonder if it doesn't have more to do with "Real Programmers"
finding them too limiting and constrained. My take, and I'd like
to believe I'm a "Real Programmer", is that they're really, really
fun and cool...but that I can do what I need to do better using the
old fashioned way.

Similar to the command line verses GUI thing in a nearby thread.
GUI *is* easier to use, but is also limiting. You can only do
what the GUI provides for. The command line opens a much larger
world of possibilities to you.
- Non-programmers still have to learn basic things like what is a
loop, a condition, branching, structuring your data, geting the
program's logic right. So the prommis of "no programming required"
does not hold. If you are lucky you get some "no typing required"
environment.

I agree. Programming is complex.
 
E

Eray Ozkural exa

Joona I Palaste said:
Eray Ozkural exa <[email protected]> scribbled the following



Nice to hear such a well-presented argument with lots of insight.
Far be it from you to tell us WHY Java sucks?

Because it's a dumbed down version of the object oriented derivative
of a horribly designed imperative PL known as C? I wouldn't really
comment on that on a Java group. LOL. Suffice it to say that I
wouldn't use that language for any amount of serious CS research
(parallel, AI, etc.)

Thanks,

__
Eray Ozkural
 

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