jan said:
latest fad.
That's not exactly what I said, is it?
thinking.)
I totally agree with you that there's a strong bandwagon force. See my post
hinting at such in relation to XML.
But I definitely don't consider Java itself as a fad. Companies have had
almost an eternity (nearly 10 years) to decide whether Java could bring them
the benefits that the rest of the world using Java are experiencing... I
think any company still using Cobol/RPG/etc.. in this day and age needs to
have their CTO/IT manager fired on the spot.
If you'll pardon my saying so: bullshit.
You've just been promoted to CTO of a company that's been
using COBOL and RPG and Autocoder for the last forty years.
Over that time their programming staff has averaged, say, a
dozen people -- so they've got 480 person-years invested in
their software. (This is by no means a "large" enterprise;
plenty of shops have much larger investments.)
Even though it's a modest investment, let's cut it down
a little more just to be generous. Let's say that over forty
years they've decommissioned and replaced two-thirds of the
software they developed. The investment in the code they're
actually using today is a mere 160 person-years.
So: Your first directive to the staff is "All that stuff
you're doing is obsolete, unfashionable, and objectionable.
I forbid you to do any more work on it. You're all going to
Fad Of The Moment school, and when you come back you'll all
get busy replacing the Bad Stuff with Fad Stuff. Make it so."
So your staff of a dozen drop everything and go away to
school, and they all come back trained to the gills and able
to work five times more productively with Fad than they ever
did with Bad. How long will it take them to rewrite all the
existing applications?
Thirty-two months.
Are you going to spend two and two-thirds years of your
IT budget for no net advance in the application services you
can deliver?
What are you going to do when the CEO calls for a new
IT initiative requiring new applications? Tell him "Sorry,
but we're booked solid through April 2009?"
Who deserves to be fired on the spot: the manager who
makes productive use of a legacy, or the one who pisses
away his inheritance?
Okay, so I've made up a lot of numbers out of thin air
(I've made them up to be as favorable to your position as I
could, by the way.) Still, they're thin-air numbers and not
very convincing. So let's boil it down to one decision you
might need to make as CTO: One of your applications depends
on the dates of the Daylight Savings seasonal time adjustment,
and the U.S. Congress has just passed a law changing the way
the adjustment is made. The clock is ticking, and you can
forecast the exact date on which your application will start
misbehaving if it isn't fixed. One of your programmers says
"No problem, boss: The folks who wrote that RPG program made
it easy to carry out adjustments of this sort; it'll be a
three-line change."
What's your response?