user923005 said:
Exactly. COBOL and Fortran are still going strong.
yes, but are still less dominant than they were...
assembler is still going strong as well FWIW...
That, and $3.75 will get you a cup of coffee.
depends, I have not really been to cafes.
I can get steel cans of coffee 2 for 1$...
I think it is 0.75$ for coffee in a plastic bottle.
all this is at a nearby convinience store...
I think that the next ten years will be an even bigger surprise than
the previous ten years, and the surprises will accelerate. Since
total knowledge doubles every 5 years now, and the trend is going
exponential-exponential, I think that projecting what will be is much
harder than you think.
yeah.
well, one can wait and see I guess...
I think that 6 months from now is difficult, even for stock prices,
much less industry trends. We can mathematically project these things
but you will see that the prediction and confidence intervals bell out
in an absurd manner after the last data point.
stocks are likely to be much harder I think, considering that they vary
chaotically and have strong feedback properties, rather than gradually over
a long period of time...
my guess is that predictions get far worse the further one moves into the
future, which is why I can speculate 10 years, but I don't really make any
solid claims for 20 years.
in the reverse direction, I can assert with pretty good confidence that
within 6 months or 1 year that the programming-language landscape will be
much the same as it is right now.
I guess that 15 years from now Windows will still dominate, unless the
Mac takes over or Linux does really well. Linux is not a desktop
force, but it is making server inroads.
Windows dominance is possible, but unless recent trends change, I don't
expect it to last.
I also personally doubt that Mac is going to regain dominance (though it
can't really be ruled out either).
the great problem with Mac is that there is not many good reasons for people
TO use it, so it seems most likely that they will not.
at this point, Linux is not a desktop force (or even a very good desktop
OS), however, the Linux driver support situation is steadily improving, and
opensource apps are gaining a strong footing vs commercial apps (for
example, at my college they use OpenOffice rather than MS Office, ...).
as such, it may be not too long before Windows and Linux are "comprable" in
many respects, and if MS throws out much more total crap (like they have
done with Vista, ...), they may just end up convincing a lot more people to
make the switch...
VM developmments are nice, but we lose horsepower. I'm not at all
sure it is the right model for computation.
I agree, technically.
VMs are not necessarily the "best" idea, but they may well continue to gain
sway over more conventional static-compilation approaches in many cases.
however, this was more in my longer-term speculation (I still expect static
compilation will be dominant in 10 years, but VMs and hybrid approaches may
become common as well).
I expect there will be a lot more hybrid apps/VMs (usually, with part of the
app being statically compiled, and part of the app running in a VM), than
either purely statically compiled, or purely VM-based apps.
however, I don't really know in which direction this will go (or which exact
form things will take).
I think that file systems should be database systems, like the AS/400
and even OpenVMS have.
I doubt, however, that something like the AS/400 or OpenVMS will gain sway,
more likely, it will be conventional filesystems with some huge amount of
crufty metadata tacked on, probably with features like union-directories,
.... fouling up what had formerly been a clean heirarchical filesystem.
some of this had already been added to Linux, and may change primarily in
the way of becoming "standard" filesystem features, in much the same way as
long filenames, unicode filenames, and symbolic links...
notice on a modern Linux distro just how long the list of mounts can end up
being...
I guess five years, but maybe not. We are going 64 bit here now, both
with machines and OS, but it's still a few weeks off. However, I
guess that our office is atypical.
possibly, or at least this will be when the "bulk" transition is
completed...
it has been about 12 years since 32 bit OSs have been the norm, but we still
have some 16 bit apps floating around...
in 10 years, likely x86-64 will still be dominant, but maybe there will be a
competitor by this point or a transition to a new major replacement...
256G Ram is way too low for 10 years from now. My guess would be 1 TB
give or take a factor of 2.
it was a linear guess based on vague memory.
in 1998, a new desktop came with like 64MB RAM and a P2, now a desktop can
come with 4GB.
so, my estimate was linear...
I suspect we won't be using platter based hard drive technology ten
years from now. I know of some alternate technologies that will store
1 TB on one square cm and so something like that will take over once
the disk drive manufacturers have depreciated their current capital.
yeah. I was ignoring the technology, again, guessing based on linear
estimation from past trends.
as for current magnetic recording, AFAIK they are using tricks like vertical
polarization and have multi-layer magnetic recording, ...
I was just making a crude guess that they continue increasing the density on
magnetic platters much as they have done for the past few decades. nevermind
that by the time magnetic platters could pull off densities like this,
probably the underlying recording will work very different.
for example, rather than polarizing specific points in the medium, the
recording will consist of a good number of likely overlapping magnetic
fields, and likely be geometric rather than linear (for example, each point
represents a 3D vector or unit-quaternion value rather than a scalar). the
encoding and decoding electronics then go about converting chunks of data
into masses of overlapping geometric waveforms (data being encoded in terms
of both the orientation and the nature of the paths taken around the surface
of a 4D unit sphere...).
note that a single head would be used, but would likely consist of 4+
directional magnetic sensors (a tripod and a vertical sensor), the
orientation measured via triangulation or similar (note that a transform
would be needed, since the sensor axes would be non-orthogonal, ...).
additional sensors could allow a vertical component to be added as well
(basically, we could then have 6 axes per track, XYZW VL, where XYZW form a
Quaternion, V represents a limited-range vertical component, possibly
allowing encoding arcs or spirals, or stacking spheres, or similar, and L
represents the linear position along the track).
so, I suspect thay, yes, we can squeeze a little more density out of these
here magnetic platters (currently, we only exploit 2 magnetic axes, or 3 in
some newer drives...).
I don't know if core count will be the thing that pushes technology or
some completely new idea.
It went like this before:
Mechanical switch
Relay
Vacuum tube
Transistor
IC
VLSI
I don't really know here...
I guess something new will come along right about the time that
silicon can no longer keep up. It always has before.
yeah.
We get ourselves into trouble when we try to predict the future. Look
at the economic analysis by Marx and Engels. It was very good. But
their predictions on what the future held were not so good.
IMO, they screwed up really hard in that they analyzed everything, and then
set out to rework everything in their own image. necessarily that does not
go over as well...
personally I have a lot more respect for Nietzsche...
I think that we have a hard time knowing for sure about tomorrow.
Next week is a stretch. Next year is a guess. Five years is
speculation. Ten years is fantasy. Twenty years is just being silly.
yes, but even for being speculative, there can be at least some merit...
of course, note that I personally tend to use bottom-up planning, rather
than top-down planning, so my approaches tend to be a lot more tolerant to
prediction errors (in my case, I often assume that predictions are likely to
be incorrect anyways, so it is always good to keep a good fallback handy in
case things work out differently than expected...).
IMO-YMMV
Now, is there some C content in here somewhere? Oh, right -- C is
going to lose force. I predict:
1. C will lose force.
OR
2. C will gain force.
OR
3. C will stay the same.
That's trichotomy for you. And I can guarantee that I am right about
it.
2 is unlikely (it is already near the top), as is 3 (what was ideal when C
was going strong are becomming gradually less the case).
assuming 1, we can then guess from the available most-likely options.