J
James Kuyper
There's a well-known three-step algorithm for obtaining
realistic project estimates:
1) Ask an experienced engineer how long the job will take.
The answer has a number and a unit of time, for example
"four weeks."
2) Double the number. For the example, this yields "eight
weeks."
3) Advance to the next-larger time unit. The example now
yields "eight months."
... and that's how long a typical four-week project takes. ;-)
So the lesson to be derived from this is that the most accurate time
estimates are those measured in fortnights, while the least accurate
ones are those measured in minutes or seconds.