Thanks for the response, Stephane.
Some good points.
My comments below...
Stephane Richard said:
Are you saying that in 20 years, a programmer wont have the tools to make
his own programming language, his own OS should he or she decide to? And
they call that progress? I call it going backwards here. If this is what
I'm gonna face in 20 years, I'll be making endless copies of DOS Linux and
maybe OS/2 so that I have the choice to do what I want. (note that I didn't
mention Windows ;-)
No. I'm not saying that. The "limits" of my view are bounded by BUSINESS (ie
commercial) application development. I don't know what will happen in
programming research labs (and, to be blunt, I'm not really
interested...hopefully, there will be some exciting developments, that will
eventually trickle through to commerce, but that isn't where my particular
personal interest lies.)
Here's my view of things, from my point of view, so you can't sue me for
saying this...hehehe.
We haven't even begun to touch the tip of the iceburg into what we can do as
far as software development goes. And while microsoft seems to be amazed by
it's Windows, Where it's been, where it is now, and where's it's going to
be, since about 3 to 4 thousand programmers went into the making of Windows,
I'm not impressed by those results. This having been said, So far, all
we've done for all these decades, is make the computer do that we dont want
to do. (Hefty calculations, any repetitive tasks, games (not for the same
reasons of course
. But we haven't even begun to tap into the potential
that's ahead of us.
I would agree with the above. The question is HOW we unleash this potential
in the future. I believe it won't be by Procedural code. (There are many
reasons for this... and I am NOT suggesting that NO-ONE will be writing
procedural code. It just won't be commercially viable to develop business
solutions in this way. In fact, it isn't even today. It's just that there
has been no alternative for 40 years...)
To me What you are suggesting is that we let the others come up with the new
stuff, give the users the ability adjust/change what the user did through
the use of somewhat flexible modules, and that's it for the programmer? I'm
thinking much longer term than that. After this step of yours happens, do
you really think that everything will have been made that can be made in the
whole computer industry?
No, that is pushing my argument beyond its limits and I couldn't defend such
a position. I am not speculating on the "whole computer industry", only
commercial systems development.
I beg to differ, as this approach the the future
of computing is one of many thousands of avenues, and I'm not saying there's
only that way out of it, even if this ever gets made, it wont close the door
to the rest of the potentials that still are, to date, untouched.
But that's my vision of it, once your implementation exists and is stable,
do you think the users, ever so evolving as you say (which I do have to
agree that they are) will stay contended with this? that they wont want
more? Give a man an inch, he'll take foot, etc etc etc....I dont seen that
human behavior stopping anytime soon. To stop that human behavior, we might
as well stop populating since after 5 billion people we can safely assume
we've conceived every possible kind of human being? not at all
. far
from it. And the same goes for programming. Your view is one of many
parralel views, views that will all equally evolve, each in their own
specific ways, each towards very specific and unique goals. And as long as
they are computers, there will be programmers.
The question is whether those "programmers" will be human... We already have
computers that monitor computers. In heuristic systems, programs modify
themselves so fast that the only way to know what happened is to monitor it
with another computer. While this is outside the arena I have defined for my
speculation, it is interesting and fun to look at.
I see a time when some programs will attain a result (based on trial and
error and a program modifying itself several trillion times within a few
minutes) where it will not be (humanly) possible to know HOW it arrived at
the solution. We'll just be thankful we HAVE a solution. There will be no
way of knowing whether the solution is optimum. The best we could do is run
the program again and hope for a shorter result...
This means a computer will attain a result and NO-ONE will know HOW it did
it.
As a Programmer, you may find this an exciting prospect, or you may find it
terrifying. (personally, I'm in the former category). No matter how you feel
about it, it will happen (has already, actually...).
Your statement regarding computers and programmers may be suspect.
And programming languages
that will range from low level to high level. The way Pascal is adjusting
to the current reality of development, I dont fear that it can adapt to any
new programming concept we can throw at it. It's been doign great at
adapting thus far.
Remember, software development is not a user only oriented concept.
at
least not in my book.
And that's my 0.02 cents worth
....(ok maybe there's a couple dollars in
there instead
.
I have tried to give you some return on your investment...<G>
Pete.